Did you see the Rams flop at home Sunday in a 38-28 loss to the Cardinals?
The game sailed over the total, which is not a surprise as the Rams have
the fourth-worst defense in the NFL. Another factor to keep in mind as we come
down the stretch of the NFL season is weather. Along with his absence and numerous
injuries to the secondary, the Patriots are 6-3 over the total, with a fine passing
attack but a suddenly poor secondary.Injuries, too, can change a team significantly. The Bengals got
them for close to 500 yards Sunday. The Rams are 4-1 over the total at
home, too, on their slick artificial carpet.Speaking of Lovie Smith, he's since gone on to
be head coach of the Chicago Bears. Head coach Romeo Crennel has a great defensive
mind, winning three of the last four Super chaussures puma Bowls as coordinator of the Patriots defense.
He has an abundance of defensive talent, and limited offensive options along with a rookie
quarterback. Think that's just a trend? Smith ran the same formula a year ago as
Chicago went 10-6 under the total, meaning they are 18-8 under since he's become Bears
coach!Handicapping totals is about line value, but it's also about the styles a football team
plays. The Bears are 8-2 under the total this season. The NY Jets have an
incredibly anemic offense rotating four QBs this season. It's those type of team strengths and
weaknesses (bad defense, good offense) that handicappers look for when examining totals. It's no surprise
that Smith prefers to win games with his defense and play conservative offensively with a
rookie QB. The Rams have a high octane offense with loads of weapons in the
running Tn Requin and passing game, but the defense has been poor the last two years under
coordinator Larry Marmie, who replaced the popular Lovie Smith. The Bengals/Colts shootout Sunday went over
the total in the first half!You might classify the Cleveland Browns in the Chicago Bears
category, too: Plodding offense, tough defense. It's obvious Marmie does not possess Smith's talent for
defense. It's essential to check weather conditions on game day. And the Patriots miss Crennel.
Cold weather is tougher on offenses, as is chilling winds and snow which is also
something that will become more common.The Colts improved defense was one of the big surprises
of the NFL season. Stats, styles, coaching and weather all contribute to overs and unders.Bryan
Leonard is a documented member of the Professional Handicappers League. The Jets are 4-2 under
the total on the road where the offense is averaging just 7 points per game!
The Steelers can't wait for Ben Roethlisberger to get healthy, and notice Pittsburgh is 5-0
under the total on the road with a tough defense and a conservative offense without
Big Ben. But notice they haven't been as strong of late, giving up over 20
points in 4 of the last 5 games. After starting the season 5-0 under the
total, the Colts offense has begun to click, while the defense has begun to bend
more and Indy is 5-0 over the total the last five contests. 70% of the
Rams games have gone over the total this season (7-3). Northern cities like Chicago, New
York, Boston, Philly and Pittsburgh are getting cold this time of year. The Browns are
improved defensively under his guidance, going 8-2 under the total. Read all of his
articles at [http://www.procappers.com/Bryan_Leonard.htm].
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